1. Oligopoly, the new force is big but not strong
Bearings play a crucial role in mechanical equipment (supporting the rotation of the machine), just as joints play a vital role in a person.
Schematic diagram of bearing parts
This seemingly ordinary small part has a market size of more than 100 billion in the world (the global bearing market size has reached 120 billion US dollars in 2021). The Asian region, which has a broad industrial market base, consumes more than 50% of the world's bearings.
Bearing market size
The 100 billion market, such a big cake, is mainly occupied by the famous eight major bearing players (the market share is close to 75%). There are no Chinese players here (5 of them are from Japan), but the eight major players have a total of more than 60 production enterprises and technology centers in China, and they are highly dependent on imports. At the same time, my country's bearing enterprises account for 20% of the world's share. Compared with traditional multinational players, there is indeed a big gap.
Market share of eight major bearing multinational groups
As a "joint" in the machinery industry, it has a wide range of applications. Automobiles, household appliances and motors occupy the top three in the bearing application field, accounting for 60.4% in total. It is also worth noting that the accuracy requirements of bearings in different industries are also different, and the bearing requirements of precision machine tools will definitely be higher. Since automobiles are the king of bearing applications, we will seize the main contradiction and look at the investment logic of automobile bearings.
Application areas downstream of the bearing
2. Domestic substitution is still the main theme
The hubs, differentials, gearboxes, engines and other parts of the car need to use bearings. Because new energy vehicles do not have an engine, the number of bearings is less than that of fuel vehicles.
Automobile internal bearing structure
my country's automotive bearing market is about 80 billion yuan, ranking second in the world's bearing revenue market after Europe. In 2020, the domestic sales of
Automotive Bearings will be about 2.5 billion sets, with a growth rate of more than 5%. And in the future, with the strong take-off of domestic new energy vehicle sales, bearing sales are expected to continue to grow.
And new energy vehicles have higher requirements on bearings, such as the high limit speed of the motor and wider temperature requirements. Therefore, although the number of bearings for new energy vehicles has decreased (only about 15), the product premium has increased, resulting in no significant change in the bearing value of a bicycle.
From the perspective of competition, the eight major bearing players mentioned above also have great advantages in the field of automotive bearings. To sum up, because bearings (especially in the mid-to-high-end market) have a series of moats such as high technical barriers and financial barriers, it is not easy for domestic players to break through, and once the vehicle players and upstream bearing suppliers are deeply bound, they will be converted. higher cost.
Therefore, domestic substitution is still the main tone of the development of automotive bearings. For example, domestic Jinwo shares (300984), the growth rate of revenue in recent years has been significantly faster than that of traditional bearing players, and it has become the hope of the whole village to seize the cake of other players.
Comparison of revenue growth rate of major bearing players
3. There is a long way to go
This is the story. To sum up, the bearing market, as a market that has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, has seen a significant growth trend in recent years. The agency predicts that the compound annual growth rate in the next 6 years will exceed 8%.
In the high-tech barrier market of the Big Mac, the eight major bearing players have extended their tentacles to all parts of the world, forming strong competition with the local market. my country's bearing industry chain is relatively scattered (domestic CR10 is less than 30%), and there is still a certain gap between local players and the eight major players.
As the most extensive automotive field in the bearing field, in recent years, due to the strong take-off of new energy vehicles, it has attracted the attention of many investors. Domestic automotive bearing players are starting the next round of counterattacks on the road of domestic substitution, to the industrial field. Crown charges.
